Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
